Winter 2011
RESEARCH

Democracy is NOT the Key to Peace in the Middle East

...continued from previous page.


The Middle East Reality

Even more so, Prof. Neuberger believes, in some cases, just the opposite is true. "If Jordan and Egypt were democracies then there wouldn't have been any peace agreements. The relationship between democracies and peace simply does not work here. Maybe peace will bring democracy, but there is no guarantee."

If that's the case, then what can work in the Middle East, if anything at all? The answer is somewhat complex.

For Prof. Neuberger the notions of democracy and peace strolling hand-in-hand are much too simplistic to have any application to life in the Middle East. "The link between democracy and peace is comparable to the link between equality and liberty. They are both highly positive values, but the relationship is so very complex that they cannot be easily resolved."

Furthermore, Prof. Neuberger claims, "a society that is in the process of democratization, in the democratic incubation stage, has a greater tendency towards war. Look at post-communist Russia and Hamas after the elections of 2005."

Prof. Neuberger has developed his own theory for bringing peace to the Middle East.

The Ripeness Theory

Israel has a long history of disillusions. "From the early days of the yishuv, Israel's leaders were skillful at adapting a theory to justify a perception, that was all too often incorrect. From Israel Zangwill's 'the land without a people waits for a people without a land' to Socialist Zionism according to which it was the landlords who were against Zionism, but not the people."

Today, Israelis have come to accept the basic truth that there are two peoples vying for one land.

Thus, Prof. Neuberger believes that once both sides come to the decision that they can't achieve their maximalist goals, neither by military force nor by international pressure, then they will realize that they are limited in what they can achieve, and compromise will be the only viable option.

"After the Yom Kippur war, the Egyptians came to the conclusion that they couldn't conquer Israel, and Israel realized that they were also limited in what they could accomplish. So both sides were ripe for a solution." And, the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel came to fruition.

Prof. Neuberger will be presenting the "Ripeness Theory" and its applicability to the Middle East in a chapter he is writing for an upcoming book in German entitled, Theory of Democratic Peace: Origins, Concepts and Influences.

Prof. Neuberger's guess about the future of democracy and peace in the Middle East? "Perhaps the Democratic Peace Theory should be turned on its head. Perhaps if we begin with peace, then this will be the trigger for democratization."

Page: 1  2  3